Cross-posted at dailykos.com.

As part of an ongoing series at dailykos, I have been keeping track of the playing field leading up to the 2006 Elections, and ranking the races in terms of likelihood of success.  The initial overviews of the races were compiled in late September and focused mostly on district demographics.  The GOP seat diary is here: http://www.dailykos.com/.... The Dem one is here: http://www.dailykos.com/...

(Cross-posted at dailykos)
I have been putting together a series of profiles of vulnerable GOP House seats.  On Thursday, I posted the seventh and final installment. That diary included New Mexico, Arizona, California, and Washington.

Prior installments:

1) New England, NJ

2. NY, PA

3. WV, OH, MI

4. IN, IL, WI, MN

5. The South

6. IA, KS, CO, WY, NV

These diaries gave an in depth look at 74 potential pickups, some more likely than others. I was asked at one point to provide a summary and rank them in terms of likelihood of winning. To do so, I came up with the following rubric: add the district partisan score to the average of the '02 and '04 Dem challengers' vote percentage, add 10 points for open seat, add 5 points for freshman incumbents, add 5 points for Ohio and Kentucky seats (b/c of scandal), add 10 for scandal, add one for Iraq veteran challenger, and add points at my discretion for strong challengers; and I reserved my right to tweak based on my own hunches. That empiric produced the following ranking, which seems pretty plausible to me.

(See the extended entry for the complete list.)